Every pick, graded in public.
This is the whole ledger: every pick DiamondEdge has served since Jul 1, 2026, graded at the price and the line it was served at. Nothing re-graded and nothing restated. The losing nights are on this page at the same size as the winning ones, because a record you can only read the good half of is an advertisement.
How to read this honestly
Most services show you a number like 109-103-11 and let you assume it means an edge. Here is what it actually supports, and what it does not.
223 picks is a small sample, and it is small in a specific, measurable way. A 95% Wilson interval around 51.4% on 212 decided picks runs from 44.7% to 58.1%. A rule that truly wins 44.7% of the time and a rule that truly wins 58.1% of the time would both produce a run like this one often enough that we could not tell them apart yet. The break-even hit rate at the standard −110 price is 52.4% — and it sits inside that interval. So this record is not yet proof of an edge. It is a start, kept in public so it can become one — or not.
The +3.95u did not come from the hit rate. 51.4% is below the 52.4% you need to break even at −110. Laid at a flat −110, this exact 109–103 would have returned −3.91u. It returned +3.95u instead — a +7.86u difference that came from the prices the picks were served at, not from being right more often. That is a real part of how the product works and it is a fragile one: it depends on getting the number you were quoted.
Both figures in this box are computed from the win and loss counts above — Wilson score interval at 95% over decided picks, and 100/110 per win against 1 per loss for the flat-price line. Everything else on this page is served exactly as it is graded.
Month by month
Both months are here, in the order they happened, at the same weight.
| Month | Picks | Record | Hit | Units | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2026 | 109 | 50-51-8 | 49.5% | −2.58u | −2.5% |
| Jul 2026 | 114 | 59-52-3 | 53.1% | +6.53u | +5.9% |
The streaks, both directions
Over 212 decided picks. Pushes are neutral — they neither extend nor break a streak.
Every night, in order
One row per night the board posted picks, newest first. The last column is the rule that was in force for that night — it changed 12 times across these 34 nights, and the record counts every one of them straight through. A product that quietly restarts its record when the model changes is not keeping a record.
| Night | Picks | Record | Units | Rule in force that night |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, Aug 15 | 14 | 6-8-0 | −2.45u | The rule that won the search |
| Fri, Aug 14 | 3 | 2-1-0 | +0.96u | The rule that won the search |
| Thu, Aug 13 | 2 | 0-2-0 | −2.00u | The rule that won the search |
| Wed, Aug 12 | 5 | 4-1-0 | +3.04u | The rule that won the search |
| Tue, Aug 11 | 6 | 2-4-0 | −2.12u | The rule that won the search |
| Mon, Aug 10 | 7 | 2-5-0 | −3.03u | The rule that won the search |
| Sun, Aug 9 | 13 | 6-5-2 | +0.49u | The rule that won the search |
| Sat, Aug 8 | 13 | 3-7-3 | −4.15u | The rule that won the search |
| Fri, Aug 7 | 6 | 3-3-0 | −0.18u | The Full Committee — 21 strategies vote |
| Thu, Aug 6 | 2 | 1-1-0 | −0.09u | Adaptive room-shape rule: 2 of 4 OVER → UNDER |
| Wed, Aug 5 | 4 | 1-3-0 | −2.00u | Adaptive room-shape rule: 2 of 4 OVER → UNDER |
| Tue, Aug 4 | 5 | 3-1-1 | +1.83u | Adaptive room-shape rule: 2 of 4 OVER → UNDER |
| Mon, Aug 3 | 7 | 4-2-1 | +1.89u | Shallow neural desk ensemble (0.54 margin) |
| Sun, Aug 2 | 8 | 5-3-0 | +1.96u | Shallow neural desk ensemble (0.54 margin) |
| Sat, Aug 1 | 3 | 1-1-1 | −0.04u | Adaptive room-shape rule: 2 of 4 OVER → UNDER |
| Fri, Jul 31 | 3 | 3-0-0 | +2.91u | Adaptive room-shape rule: 2 of 4 OVER → UNDER |
| Thu, Jul 30 | 3 | 3-0-0 | +2.92u | Adaptive room-shape rule: 2 of 4 OVER → UNDER |
| Wed, Jul 29 | 7 | 4-3-0 | +1.01u | Adaptive room-shape rule: 2 of 4 OVER → UNDER |
| Tue, Jul 28 | 7 | 5-2-0 | +3.35u | Adaptive room-shape rule: 2 of 4 OVER → UNDER |
| Mon, Jul 27 | 4 | 2-2-0 | −0.04u | Adaptive room-shape rule: 2 of 4 OVER → UNDER |
| Sun, Jul 26 | 6 | 4-2-0 | +2.03u | Adaptive room-shape rule: 2 of 4 OVER → UNDER |
| Sat, Jul 25 | 9 | 3-6-0 | −2.84u | Regularized desk meta-model (0.46 margin) |
| Fri, Jul 24 | 7 | 5-2-0 | +2.81u | Stacked analyst-rule model (top 5, 2+ signals) |
| Thu, Jul 23 | 1 | 0-1-0 | −1.00u | Fade the conditions analyst + the hitting analyst + the pitching analyst when that block agrees |
| Wed, Jul 22 | 9 | 1-7-1 | −6.05u | Regularized desk meta-model (0.46 margin) |
| Tue, Jul 21 | 7 | 2-5-0 | −3.00u | Regularized desk meta-model (0.46 margin) |
| Mon, Jul 20 | 10 | 8-2-0 | +5.79u | Probabilistic analyst blend (0.4% edge) |
| Sun, Jul 19 | 12 | 7-5-0 | +1.96u | Probabilistic analyst blend (0.4% edge) |
| Sat, Jul 18 | 5 | 1-3-1 | −2.02u | Fade the conditions analyst + the hitting analyst + the pitching analyst when that block agrees |
| Fri, Jul 17 | 10 | 4-5-1 | −1.15u | Weighted four-analyst form blend (6% threshold) |
| Thu, Jul 16 | 1 | 1-0-0 | +0.96u | Fade the conditions analyst + the pitching analyst when they agree |
| Sun, Jul 12 | 11 | 6-5-0 | +0.89u | Probabilistic analyst blend (0.4% edge) |
| Fri, Jul 3 | 1 | 0-1-0 | −1.00u | Probabilistic analyst blend (1.8% edge) |
| Thu, Jul 2 | 1 | 0-1-0 | −1.00u | Probabilistic analyst blend (1.2% edge) |
What counts, and what does not
every game DiamondEdge served as an official pick, graded at the price and line it was served at, one row per game, across every engine change. Nothing re-graded, nothing restated, and no part of it is a strategy replayed over days it did not actually play.
A pick is frozen before the game — side, line and price — and it is graded against that frozen ticket whatever the number moves to afterwards. Picks are counted one row per game. Units are flat: one unit a pick, every pick, no staking plan doing quiet work in the background.
This page shows the MLB product record, which is the only record DiamondEdge has run long enough to publish. NFL, WNBA and MLS boards keep their own separate ledgers from the day each one armed, and they are never blended into the figure above. Records are updated as nights finish grading; this page is current through Aug 16, 2026.
Scores, news and the full slate are free. The picks behind the ledger above are the paid part — one honest call per game, frozen before first pitch, graded here win or lose.
See today’s board